Sarasota Real Estate Market Update (Early 2026)

Here’s a clear look at where things stand today and what it could mean for you.

Migration to Florida: Still Positive, But Slowing

Let’s start with the big picture.

Florida is still experiencing net positive migration; more people are moving in than moving out. However, the pace has slowed dramatically compared to the pandemic boom years.

According to U.S. Census data:

• 2022: ~310,000 net domestic migrants (peak)
• 2023: ~183,000
• 2025: ~22,000

That’s a significant drop. Florida went from being the #1 destination state to ranking closer to eighth in net domestic migration.

International vs. Domestic Buyers

An important shift occurred around 2023:
International migration overtook domestic migration as the primary source of population growth in Florida.

Historically, most inbound movers came from other U.S. states. But in recent years, approx. 90% new residents arrived from international destinations, particularly South America, Europe, and Canada.

Most international buyers concentrated in Miami and Orlando, but Sarasota benefited from this trend as well. With tighter immigration policies, the international buyer pool appears to be shrinking, which could slightly reduce demand across Florida, including Sarasota.

Sarasota County Migration Trends

In 2025:

• Over 1,300 new Sarasota residents came from U.S. territories or foreign countries
• That’s an 84% increase over pre-pandemic averages

Top domestic feeder states:

1. New York
2. New Jersey
3. Illinois
4. Pennsylvania
5. Massachusetts

The primary motivations?

• Greater affordability
• Lifestyle and climate
• In some cases, political preferences

Where Are People Moving From Sarasota?

Out-migration exists, but fewer people are leaving than arriving.

IRS data (2021–2022) shows outbound movers headed to:

• Lee County
• Hillsborough County
• Charlotte County
• North Carolina
• Tennessee
• Georgia
• South Carolina

Yes, the IRS data is from 2021-2022, but the trend continues. The common theme? Lower cost of living.

Sarasota home prices have risen sharply in recent years, and affordability pressure is real.

Current Sarasota Housing Market Metrics

Median Price: Softening Slightly

For single-family homes in Sarasota:

• Current Median Price: $530,000
• January 2025 Median: $556,000
• Year-over-year change: ~–5%

I focus on median rather than average price because luxury sales can skew averages.

Prices are trending softer compared to last year.

Sale-to-List Ratio: Negotiation Is Back

The average home is now selling for about 95% of its final list price.

Important distinction:
Many homes are listed high, experience multiple price cuts, and then sell at about 5% (on average) below that last reduced price.

Buyers have leverage again.

Days on Market: Buyers Are Taking Their Time

• Current Average DOM: 83 days
• 2025 (same time last year): 72 days
• 2024: 66 days

Homes are taking longer to go pending.

Buyers are:

• Comparing options
• Negotiating harder
• Feeling far less urgency than in 2021–2022

That’s healthy. Real estate decisions shouldn’t be rushed.

Inventory: The Key Number to Watch

• Current Months of Inventory: 7.21

A balanced Sarasota market typically sits around 5–6 months. At 7+ months, we’re leaning into buyer’s market territory.

If inventory stays elevated and demand doesn’t increase this spring, prices will likely face continued downward pressure.

Seasonally, March and April tend to bring more activity, with price strength often peaking in late Q2 (May–June closings). We’ll see if that pattern holds this year.

The Biggest Factor: New Construction

A major driver of market softening is supply growth from new construction, especially:

• East of I-75
• Wellen Park (south of Sarasota)
• Continued expansion of Lakewood Ranch (potential 5,000 units)
• Future development in Hi Hat Ranch (potential 10,000 units)
• Skye Ranch area (potential 10,000 units)

Over the next 5–10 years, thousands of additional units are planned.

If migration slows while construction continues at this pace, supply increases, and basic economics applies: more supply without increased demand puts downward pressure on prices.

Resales vs. New Builds

Resale homes are now competing directly with:

• Builder incentives
• Rate buydowns
• Brand-new product

That changes the dynamic significantly compared to just a few years ago.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

If You’re a Buyer

Right now, you have:

• More options
• More negotiating power
• Less competition
• Time to evaluate decisions

That wasn’t the case during the pandemic surge.

If Sarasota is a long-term move (8–10+ years), today’s environment could work in your favor.

If You’re a Seller

Pricing correctly matters more than ever.

Homes that are:

• Overpriced
• Similar to abundant new construction
• Lacking differentiation

…will likely sit and require price reductions.

Unique communities and strong value propositions will hold up better over time, especially as supply continues expanding east of I-75.

So, Is Now the Right Time to Buy?

It depends entirely on your situation.

• Moving from out of state and planning to stay long-term?
  → This could be a favorable window.
• Unsure about relocating?
  → Waiting 2–3 years may provide more clarity.

In the short term, prices will likely trend slightly downward vs the same time last year, though that’s not a guarantee. Migration patterns, construction pace, and broader economic factors will ultimately determine direction.

Final Thoughts

The Sarasota market has shifted from a high-pressure seller’s market to a more balanced, and in some cases buyer-favored, environment.

The key variables to watch over the next year:

• Migration trends
• Builder activity
• Inventory levels
• Spring absorption rates

I’ll continue publishing updates every few months so you can stay informed and make smart, confident decisions.

If you have questions about your specific situation, feel free to reach out.

Sources:

https://www.wlrn.org/business/2026-02-10/florida-population-growth-immigrationhttps://www.myrasm.com/blog/2026/01/26/market-statistics/out-of-state-migration-to-sarasota-and-manatee-counties-remains-strong-in-2025/https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/news-and-profiles/2025/06/migration-data-sarasota-manatee-county-populationhttps://www.sarasotamagazine.com/news-and-profiles/2025/06/migration-data-sarasota-manatee-county-population

MarketQuest

Disclaimer

The opinions shared on this website are solely my own and are intended for general informational purposes only. Nothing published here should be interpreted as legal, financial, tax, investment, or professional advice. While I make every effort to provide accurate and up-to-date information, I cannot guarantee the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of the content. Market conditions, laws, and policies change frequently, and individual circumstances vary. Any commentary related to real estate, public policy, economics, legal matters, or market trends reflects personal perspective and analysis based on publicly available data and sources believed to be reliable at the time of writing. Before making any financial or real estate decisions, you should conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified professional who can advise you based on your specific situation. I am not responsible for any decisions or actions taken based on the information provided on this site.